Through the weekend, the heat built on Sunday with a high of 89 but, by most standards it’s been a dry heat. Dew points have been in a comfortable range, and Sunday’s 4 p.m. relative humidity was just 29%. That’s all over, as we start the week. Dew points are headed into the uncomfortable mid 60s and will stay in that range through Tuesday. Most locations still need some rain, and scattered thunderstorms are coming, but scattered is the key word for summertime convection. Soil moisture has taken quite a drop this month, since May 31.
Overall, we are not approaching drought conditions, but topsoil has gotten crusty, and most farms and gardens need are in need of water during this important time for the growing season. In the way of scattered storms, the Storm Prediction Center/SPC has the southern portion of WNY at a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail later on Monday into early Monday evening. Spotty storms of lesser intensity would be more likely as you head north to the Niagara Frontier.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows abundant moisture available for shower and downpour production, if the right organizing trigger comes along.
You can see the increasing vapor already into Western New York, with another better-organized disturbance drawing closer to our west. So, in general, showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase compared to the last several days, mainly during afternoon and early evening heating. Here is a modeled depiction of activity during later Monday afternoon.
Some of the storms may also produce some downpours capable of causing localized poor drainage flooding. On Tuesday, activity may increase further with the approach of a better trigger – a cold front. While SPC does not yet have WNY at any risk for severe weather, I’m not ruling out isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of the front in the afternoon, especially later.
Behind this front, a welcome lowering of dew points will begin Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing back an “ahhh” factor into the feel of things around here. During Wednesday, dew point will be in the comfortable low 50s, with temperatures in the mid 70s.
When we look at modeled rainfall coverage and amounts, the American/GFS model and others draw a real preference for greatest amounts being south of Buffalo, even if some isolated downpours reach the Niagara Frontier Tuesday afternoon.
If models verify, rainfall amounts on the Niagara Frontier will be disappointing for farmers and gardeners between Monday and Tuesday. Basically, locations south and east of the metro area will probably fare better than the metro area and points north.
By Thursday, more scattered showers and a few thundershowers will develop for the afternoon, again favoring locations south and southeast of the metro area. Despite these showers, dew points will remain comfortable as temperatures reach the seasonable mid-upper 70s. Friday looks dry and bright, with the temperature closer to 80. But another more vigorous disturbance will begin to shake things up before Saturday morning. Saturday looks mild, humid, and unsettled with occasional convection, as seen in the European/ECMWF model.
Early signs point to a drier and seasonably warm Sunday, with temps just topping 80, followed by muggier and more unsettled conditions returning the following Monday.
All in all, signs remain favorable for most days in the 6-10 and 8-14 day time range to run warmer than average with the average high now in the upper 70s approaching 80 by the end of the month. The Climate Prediction Center/CPC has projected high probabilities for this warmth.
Speaking of CPC, they are especially optimistic about warmer than average probabilities in their experimental 3-4 week outlook.
As I often explain, these mean probabilities don’t mean every single day is going to be very warm or hot. Cold fronts, like Tuesday evening’s front, cannot be foreseen weeks in advance. Models and ensembles of models are more reliable with temperature trends further out in time. I’ll just say cold fronts have a way of crossing the Great Lakes from time to time even during warm periods and for me, this is part of our region’s climatological charm. I'm not a fan of being "muggified."
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Dew points come up, raindrops come down - Buffalo News
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