As pleasing as the prospect of having Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the White House is for most Californians, the election dealt Gov. Gavin Newsom a pretty poor hand — a hand that could set the course of his administration for years to come.
The first bad card is the potential loss of Proposition 15, the union-backed tax measure that would have raised an extra $12 billion a year for schools, and state and local governments that are facing rising labor, pension and health care costs.
“It means that schools and local communities won’t have the extra revenue they sorely need in these tough fiscal times,” said Assembly Budget Chairman Phil Ting, D-San Francisco.
Which brings us to the second bad card: the prospect that Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate and cut the $2.2 billion COVID relief package that state and local governments, along with mass transit agencies, have been praying for to avoid cuts and possible worker furloughs.
The net result could be less stimulus money from Congress and no Prop. 15 money to fill the gap.
“That gives us two choices: make cuts or find another way to raise revenue,” Ting said.
Democrats have supermajorities in both the state Senate and Assembly, but many of the lawmakers are in districts that the election proved to be redder than expected and may not be inclined to vote for new taxes, given the squeeze the pandemic is putting on the economy.
On the other hand, no one wants to see pink slips going out to teachers and deep cuts to programs.
State Sen. Steve Glazer, whose suburban Contra Costa County district tends to be fiscally moderate, said, “It’s a tough call all the way around, and it’s not just a one-year decision. If you don’t own up to the problem this year, the consequences may be even greater down the road.”
Even if there is an appetite for new taxes to fill the gaps, raising them will take time.
“It’s difficult to raise revenue in the short run, because we tend to go to the voters for money, and that might not be until the election in 2022,” Ting said.
Speaking for the administration, H.D. Palmer, deputy director of the state Finance Department, said, “While the election’s over, the economic hardship from the COVID recession remains. State revenues are running above projections so far, but there’s $11 billion in cuts in place that could be restored if there is additional federal relief,” he said of the state budget.
Meanwhile, roughly one-fourth of the state’s labor force is collecting some form of unemployment benefit, and Newsom’s own May budget forecast projected that it will take six years to return to the level of employment California had before the coronavirus pandemic.
And then there was the joker in the deck.
Removing President Trump from the White House is a definite win for Democrats, but it also means that Newsom wouldn’t have Trump to blame for lack of leadership on everything from the coronavirus to the environment.
And given party loyalties, he can’t be seen as critical of Biden.
Political consultant Dan Newman, who has worked with Newsom since he was San Francisco mayor, said everyone knows it’s going to be a tough hand to play.
“Nobody is complaining, but it ain’t what it was when he signed up for, when he took the job — back then it was giant surpluses, a roaring economy and no COVID,” Newman said.
That’s 2020 for ya.
Late returns: For outgoing Oakland City Councilmember Larry Reid, election night 2020 began quietly enough, as he and others gathered at a storefront at Durant Square to follow the returns on his daughter Treva Reid’s run to replace him — then he looked out the window.
“It was just crazy,” Reid said. “About a hundred cars came pouring into the parking lot, and all these young people are just all over the place.”
Their target was a cannabis store that Reid had seen get hit in May during the looting that followed the George Floyd demonstrations.
This time, however, there were no demonstrations to otherwise occupy the police, and within minutes squad cars arrived. In the ensuing mayhem, most of the would-be looters jumped back into their cars and took off. Others stashed their loot under a pair of cars and ran, leaving the cars behind to be impounded by the police.
Reid and the others at the campaign party were told to stay in place as a SWAT team checked the shopping mall to see if any of the thieves were still inside.
Midway through the sweep, there came a report of people in 20 to 25 vehicles swarming a cannabis store a couple miles away at 701 66th Ave., near the Oakland Coliseum, where a Jeep Cherokee had rammed through the fence surrounding the store.
Most of the police took off from the shopping center with sirens blaring.
A few blocks away, City Councilmember Loren Taylor was on his way to the Durant Square party when he got caught up in the mayhem.
“This whole line of cars came speeding at us from the other direction, followed by a line of speeding police cars,” Taylor said.
And on and on it went until the early-morning hours, as roving teams of armed robbers caravanned across the city, hitting cannabis businesses, pharmacies, electronics stores and other merchants.
“Unfortunately we’ve got different worlds in Oakland, and that’s what we work with in the city,” Taylor said.
By night’s end, three officers had been run over and hospitalized and a 20-year-old who allegedly ran over two of the officers had been shot dead by police at a confrontation at grow house in a residential area of the 1400 block of 92nd Avenue.
“These young people don’t care anything about life,” Reid said. “Their life, your life or anyone else’s.”
San Francisco Chronicle columnist Phil Matier appears Sundays and Wednesdays. Matier can be seen on the KGO-TV morning and evening news and can also be heard on KCBS radio Monday through Friday at 7:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Got a tip? Call 415-777-8815, or email pmatier@sfchronicle.com. Twitter: @philmatier
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