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WHO's plans for a Wuhan probe at a crossroads - Politico

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THE BIG IDEA

IS TEDROS RECALIBRATING ON CHINA? — The World Health Organization’s planned second phase of its investigation into the origins of the coronavirus is at a crossroads — just as the WHO’s director general gears up for reelection next May.

Beijing’s rejectionof Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ call for audits of labs and research institutions in Wuhan, China was no surprise. But Tedros’ approach to further probing whether the virus leaked from a lab did surprise many WHO member states in Geneva, according to two diplomats, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely. Both see this as a potential campaign move by Tedros, who is running for a second five-year term, to align with the U.S. and the West following criticism that the WHO was soft on China when the pandemic started.

Tedros and other WHO officials counter that the global health body wasn’t soft; it lacks the power to force any country to divulge information or permit international investigators on the ground.

When China allowed an international team in Wuhan this winter to look into how the virus started, the final report, released jointly with Chinese experts, dismissed an accidental lab leak as “extremely unlikely.” That report “is often taken as an example of the WHO’s submission to China,” one of the diplomats told POLITICO’s Ashleigh Furlong. Tedros noted soon after that all hypotheses are still on the table.

A tough balancing act: Now, his tone is sharper, asking China “to be transparent, open and cooperate especially on the information, raw data that we asked for in the early days of the pandemic.”

When asked how much President Joe Biden’s demand that the U.S. intelligence community probe the virus’ origins factored into Tedros’ call, WHO spokesperson Tarik Jašarević underlined Tedros’ earlier remarks for further studies, including the lab incident hypothesis. He declined to comment on the election.

“Maybe Tedros has just done his calculations and realizes that China will not be able to block his reelection,” said the second Geneva-based diplomat.

Larry Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown University who knows Tedros well, sees the WHO chief’s tough talk on China as both a pivot away from his failed strategy to get China to cooperate as well as a way to shore up his own standing in the U.S. and Europe, “two crucial places where he needs the support,” he said.

WHO’s next steps aren’t clear. Top science officials from Australia, the European Union, Japan and the U.S. this week asked China to reconsider its refusal to engage in the second phase of the origin investigation. In response, a Chinese officialurged an end to “politicizing the issue of origins tracing.” And in a commentary on Wednesday, the state-owned China Global Television Network warned that American “post-trust politics” is pressuring Tedros — and destroying the WHO.

WELCOME TO GLOBAL PULSE

WELCOME BACK TO GLOBAL PULSE, where your host is on her final leg of a European trip. (More on that in a future edition of Global Pulse.) Meanwhile, tell me how things are looking in your corner of the globe by filling out this form.

Global Pulse is a team effort. Thanks to my colleagues Joanne Kenen, Sarah Owermohle, Ashleigh Furlong and editor Eli Reyes. Follow me on Twitter: @carmenpaun. Send tips and ideas to [email protected].

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

HONG KONG KEEPS COVID CASES LOW, DESPITE VAX HESITANCY — Hong Kong has mostly kept the coronavirus at bay by relying on lockdowns and isolation. But that very success has fueled vaccine hesitancy. Shots just don’t seem so urgent, particularly when they’re administered by a government that's widely mistrusted because it’s following orders from Beijing. So far, some 40 percent of Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents have received at least one dose in a campaign that started strong in March, faltered, but is now picking up speed. (The Pfizer shot is more in demand than China’s Sinovac.)

POLITICO’s Tanya Snyder got an update from her friend Jenny L. Smith, an associate professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

How is Hong Kong doing on its zero-Covid goal?

Right now, we’re achieving it. Masks are required everywhere in public unless you’re exercising or eating. Hong Kong performs close to a million Covid tests every month, and the city tests the sewage system building by building. A positive sewage test triggers a mandatory testing notice for every person living in that building. We have a phone app, Leave Home Safe, that we’re supposed to scan when we enter restaurants and public institutions like hospitals and libraries.

Hong Kong is basically a success story; we’ve had 212 Covid deaths. This past spring there was one patient, known as case #1989, an older man who’d been in the hospital for over 200 days. He died and there were just so many people who had been following his case and were so sad he’d passed.

On the other hand, like other countries with a zero-Covid goal, Hong Kong is now almost completely cut off from the rest of the world. This isolation is hard.

How is the vaccination campaign going?

Partially because there haven’t been that many deaths or cases of Covid here, people don’t see much urgency in getting vaccinated. The government is offering vaccines at government-run clinics and a huge chunk of Hong Kong’s population wants literally nothing to do with the government, up to and including a lifesaving vaccine.

The business sector has stepped in with vaccine incentives — [lotteries] to win a free apartment, or vouchers for a free year’s worth of stays at a luxury hotel, for example.

The lotteries are not open to foreign workers, and the government has consistently failed to prevent them from being targeted unfairly as vectors of disease transmission.

Overall, what has the government response been like?

The public health response has been very conscientious. In general, the Hong Kong public has very low confidence in most branches of the government so public health authorities have gone out of their way to be transparent, to communicate very clearly by doing things like providing daily updates, candid interviews with experts, publishing a lot of statistics about testing, vaccination rates, adverse events.

It’s becoming clear that the zero-Covid goal is extremely labor intensive and has enormous social and economic costs. I do wonder how they will maintain this for years and years, but that appears to be what they’re working toward.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

THE STATE OF THE PANDEMIC

AFRICA’S PUSH TO MAKE COVID VACCINES LEAVES INDUSTRY ON EDGE — The continent is poised to enter coronavirus vaccine manufacturing with messenger RNA hubs that leave the door open for more drug production — and a broad shift from relying almost entirely on imported shots, POLITICO Europe’s Ashleigh Furlong writes.

What's happening: Two potential mRNA technology transfer hubs are in the works, both in South Africa. While the top priority is producing Covid-19 vaccines — both Pfizer and Moderna use the mRNA technology — scientists are already thinking of new ways to harness it for HIV medicines, cancer and even the Ebola virus.

But: To get production up and running in a year — in time to help end the pandemic — the African manufacturer needs the drug industry’s help. And that may be difficult: Neither Moderna nor Pfizer has signaled interest in collaborating. The companies declined to comment on their potential involvement.

The industry is playing “a really dangerous game,” warned Jaume Vidal, senior policy advisor for European projects at Health Action International. He believes that its actions are, in effect, “condemning thousands.”

Aside from legal barriers, including patents, there's a bigger problem, Ashleigh writes: The industry isn't convinced that potential production hubs can manufacture on their terms. Drugmakers need to have high trust that the recipient of the tech transfer or licensee “has the skilled workforce, skilled people, and they can be trusted to stick to the agreements," said Thomas Cueni, director general of international pharma lobby IFPMA.

BEYOND THE PANDEMIC

WHO: GLOBAL TOBACCO USE STILL FALLING, WITH CAVEATS — While tobacco use continues to decline in most countries, population growth means the total number of people smoking has remained stubbornly high, the WHO said in its latest tobacco report.

It's also a disparities issue. Of roughly 1 billion smokers globally, 80 percent live in low- and middle-income countries. Annually, 8 million deaths are still attributed to tobacco, with 1 million of them from secondhand smoke.

There’s been some progress. More than half of all countries require graphic health warnings on tobacco packaging, and 32 countries have banned e-cigarettes, while 79 more limit e-cigarette use or advertising.

But the WHO is pressing more countries to institute higher taxes, calling it the most effective way to reduce smoking. Just 13 percent of the global population is covered by effective taxation, it said. And 49 countries haven’t adopted any of the WHO suggested policies to limit tobacco use — known as MPOWER measures — most of them low- and middle-income nations.

WHO officials stressed their concerns about e-cigarettes in a statement, saying they could hook a new generation and undo progress against tobacco use. “These products are hugely diverse and are evolving rapidly,” said Rüdiger Krech, director of the WHO’s health promotion department. "This is just one way the industry subverts and undermines tobacco control measures.”

WHAT WE'RE CLICKING

POLITICO: “How AstraZeneca threw away its shot.” Jillian Deutsch and Ashleigh Furlong have a good read on the original high hopes that the AstraZeneca vaccine could save the world — and how it crashed.

BMJ: Robert Fortner uncovers changes to the global polio eradication efforts — including 500 layoffs and a change in the immunization strategy — and asks whether the effort has run out of fuel.

CNN: The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, where high altitude, remote mountain villages, nomadic herders and extreme weather posed unique challenges to vaccine delivery, vaccinated 90 percent of its population.

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