WASHINGTON — The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is suppressing oil demand to such a degree that some energy analysts are questioning whether it will accelerate society's transition from the fossil fuel.
Analysis released Monday by Rystad Energy, an independent research firm in Norway, predicts that oil demand will now peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, two years earlier than they predicted before the virus struck.
"The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels," said Artyom Tchen, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use."
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Right now, global oil demand is averaging about 89.3 million barrels per day, a 10 percent decline from last year. And Rystad is predicting that it won't rebound to those levels until 2023, as government lockdowns intensify with rising infection rates ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere.
And there could be longer term shifts in energy use, Rystad says, as businesses rely more on teleconferencing platforms for meetings and tourists avoid airplanes for their vacations.
At the same time, industry and governments in Europe and Asia are not backing off their clean energy goals, despite the economic fallout.
Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 percent of total global car sales by 2025, reaching 80 percent by mid-century, Rystad said.
"The pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes," Tchen wrote. "This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition."
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