Many Afghans who worked with the U.S. are desperate to leave Afghanistan, fearing retribution from the Taliban.Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
At least 250,000 Afghans who may be eligible for expedited American visas remain in Afghanistan, far too many for American forces to rescue before their deadline to leave next week, new estimates suggest.
Even if American forces continue their current pace of roughly 20,000 evacuations per day — a tall order — the estimates suggest the effort will not come close to rescuing the full group of Afghans who may be eligible to leave before President Biden’s deadline to depart, Aug. 31.
Many Afghan interpreters, advisers and others who worked with the U.S. government or American organizations over the past 20 years and their families are eligible for special visas. And many fear retribution from the Taliban and are desperate to leave.
But precise figures are impossible, as American officials have not said how many remain in the country.
Time is running short for Afghans who worked with the U.S.
Evacuations since the Taliban took over Kabul
Withdrawal
deadline
300,000 evacuees
At least
250,000
Afghans remaining
Minimum estimated
eligible for U.S. visas
Current pace of
evacuation
1,500
U.S. citizens remaining
82,300
evacuated so far
As of Aug. 25
Time is running short for Afghans who
worked with the U.S.
Evacuations since the Taliban took over Kabul
Withdrawal
deadline
300,000 evacuees
At least
250,000
Afghans remaining
Minimum estimated
eligible for U.S. visas
Current pace of
evacuation
1,500
U.S. citizens
remaining
82,300
evacuated so far
As of Aug. 25
Source: The Association of Wartime Allies and researchers from American University·Estimates of those remaining in Afghanistan do not include U.S. green card holders, as no data is available.
These estimates are based on reports on Afghan employment published annually by the Department of Defense and analyzed by the Association of Wartime Allies, a group that advocates for Afghans affiliated with the U.S., and researchers at American University. Other estimates vary widely, from 100,000 to more than 300,000 people.
The group estimated that the number could be far higher, depending on the assumptions used: More than a million Afghans who remain in the country, it found, could be eligible for expedited immigration status.
American officials said on Thursday that 82,300 people, including Americans, Afghans and others, had been flown out of Kabul since the government fell to Taliban forces on Aug. 14.
To make the estimates, the researchers reviewed Department of Defense employment reports and estimated how many employees filled jobs that were eligible for visas and how long they worked. They then estimated the size of their immediate families and subtracted how many may have already left the country.
They include Afghans eligible for two visa programs. Special Immigrant Visas are available to those who worked with the American military and U.S. Embassy as interpreters, translators, advisers and in other jobs during the war. And Priority 2 visas are available to those who worked for American organizations and projects supported by the U.S. government.
The figures do not include many more Afghans who are not eligible for visas but could be at risk from the Taliban because of their roles in the Afghan government or military, or because they are activists or religious minorities. On Tuesday, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, estimated that broader number could also be in the millions.
The International Rescue Committee has estimated that over 300,000 Afghan civilians have been affiliated with the U.S. mission. One administration official said earlier this week that the number of people who needed to be evacuated could be more than 100,000.
On Tuesday, President Biden reaffirmed his plan to remove all American troops by the end of the month, although he said the timeline could be adjusted if necessary. “We’re currently on a pace to finish by August the 31st,” he said.
But other senior U.S. officials doubt the evacuations will be complete by then. The number of potentially eligible Afghans is far higher than the number of Americans, who officials have said are their first priority. At least 4,500 American citizens and their family members have been evacuated, and roughly 1,500 American citizens remain, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Wednesday.
Mr. Blinken said Wednesday that the United States would evacuate as many Afghan allies as possible, and that any Americans or Afghans who have worked with the U.S. mission and want to leave after that date should be free to do so. The Taliban have promised to allow “free passage” to those who qualify even after the withdrawal, he said.
“That effort will continue every day,” he said.
But the evacuation mission is widely expected to slow to a trickle once the U.S. military exits.
Despite their promises, the Taliban said they would block Afghans trying to leave the country from traveling to Kabul’s airport on Tuesday. Even with the Americans still operating the airport, the obstacles for anybody trying to evacuate are immense. Just getting there is a perilous ordeal, with jostling, desperate crowds braving Taliban checkpoints, clogging the roads and risking injury or death.
And some Afghan military interpreters and other close U.S. allies were being turned away at the airport by American officials in order to give priority to U.S. citizens and green card holders, a State Department official said on Monday. That account was supported by interviews with Afghans who have approached the airport in recent days, and American veterans groups and other organizations that have tried to organize departures.
One woman who worked for the United States Agency for International Development described being removed from the airport by American officials as she waited with her family at the airport.
“We risked our lives,” said the woman, who asked not to be named because of concerns for her family’s safety.
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