Sunshine and heat start the week, tropical downpours soon to come - WREX-TV

ROCKFORD (WREX) — After a gorgeous weekend of sunshine and warm weather, changes are slated to move in by Tuesday. Before rain, wind, and thunder return, a hot and sunny Monday is on tap.

Sunny for now:

High pressure is going to keep the weather in the short-term quiet and toasty. Monday is off to a fairly comfortable start, with most areas in the 60s to near 70. A few clouds have worked their way across the sky, but overall a sunny day is ahead.

The sunny conditions are going to bake temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s by late in the day. The saving grace to Monday's forecast is humidity is going to remain in check. Dew points through the day are going to generally be under 60°, which is considered fairly comfortable.

A hot afternoon is ahead for Monday, but humidity remains fairly low. Highs are going to be near 90°, but the lack of humidity could make temperatures feel a degree or two "cooler."

Low dew points are going to be a fleeting part of the local forecast, as Tuesday brings in humidity and tropical downpours.

Tracking tropical remnants:

Cristobal is bringing heavy rain, strong wind, and the threat for tornadoes to parts of the Deep South early Monday. By early Tuesday morning, the remnants of the former tropical storm are forecast to be knocking on the Stateline's doorstep.

Tropical Depression Cristobal is located over northern Louisiana early Monday morning.

The morning is likely to remain dry, but conditions Tuesday quickly deteriorate beyond the noon hour. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and even the threat for tornadoes are part of the forecast. Atmospheric moisture is forecast to be about 250% above normal, meaning rainfall rates are likely to be very high. The threat for flash flooding does exist, though the heaviest axis of rainfall looks to be west of the region.

A widespread swath of 1/2" to 1" of rain is likely, with the heaviest rain totals falling just west of the Mississippi River.

Winds are going to be a big part of Tuesday's forecast, which is no surprise considering the tropical nature of Cristobal. Winds could gust upwards of 40 mph at times, especially during the afternoon and evening. Given the potential for heavy rain and saturated soils, trees could certainly come down in strong winds.

Tuesday is going to bring gusty winds, especially during the afternoon and evening.

Landfalling tropical systems come with an inherent risk for tornadoes and Cristobal is no different. While the system made landfall Sunday, the threat for tornadoes remain as remnants move into the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center places a 2% risk for tornadoes across the Stateline, with a slightly higher percentage south of Chicago where higher instability is likely.

Winding down Wednesday:

By midweek, the overall weather pattern is going to be transitioning. A digging trough is going to work through the region early in the day, keeping the threat for rain and storms in the forecast during the morning. Most model guidance pulls rain and storms out of the area by late Wednesday morning, with a gradual return to sunshine by the afternoon.

As what's left of Cristobal rapidly pulls away from the Upper Midwest, subsistence takes over. Subsistence is just a fancy way of saying air is going to be sinking, so sunshine and cooler weather takes hold for the back half of the work week.

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Sunshine and heat start the week, tropical downpours soon to come - WREX-TV
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