For those who took Biden at his word and understood the potential for a two-track approach (a bipartisan deal on hard infrastructure and a reconciliation deal with Democrats only for human infrastructure), the deal was confirmation that mainstream media coverage can be far too impatient and far too certain in predicting outcomes. Legislative dealmaking is tedious. Reporters have seen so little of it in recent years that it seems many have forgotten how long and complicated the process can take.
The framework itself amounts to $1.2 trillion in new and baseline spending increases over eight years. The funding comes from a hodgepodge of sources including reducing “the IRS tax gap,” presumably an effort to better enforce existing tax laws, and using unused relief funds. Advertised by the White House as the largest infrastructure investment in nearly a century, the package includes funds for “modernizing and expanding transit and rail networks across the country,” repairing roads and bridges, a “national network of electric vehicle (EV) chargers,” replacing water systems, expanding “reliable high-speed internet,” securing the power grid, pollution cleanup and protecting infrastructure from “climate change, cyber attacks, and extreme weather events.”
This is a very big, traditional infrastructure bill, but it also nods toward green energy and non-transportation items such as broadband access and water systems. The bill would partly be deficit-financed under the rubric of “macroeconomic impact of infrastructure investment” — meaning it will in part pay for itself. (The theory that capital investments do not need to be entirely paid for seems to have won the day.) Biden senior adviser Steve Ricchetti told me Thursday afternoon, “We‘ve made the argument that capital investment does pay dividends.”
There are five takeaways from this development. The first is that the deal, if consummated, would still allow Democrats to proceed with a reconciliation bill on essentially everything else — free community college, expanded child care and senior care and extension of the child tax credit. Because Sens. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are on board with that massive workaround to the filibuster, one can assume there is some flexibility in their definition of “keeping the filibuster.”
That flexibility on the filibuster is itself a major breakthrough for Democrats, given that Republicans have ruled out supporting certain measures (e.g., investing in human infrastructure). It allows for a potentially transformative bill of social spending funded by increased taxes on corporations and the wealthy. In other words, in proceeding down two tracks, Biden may claim bipartisanship and satisfy progressives — all while setting a precedent for maneuvering around the 60-vote requirement. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier on Thursday was emphatic that there “ain’t” going to be a bipartisan bill without a reconciliation bill.) Ricchetti told me, “Democrats got about two-thirds of the what they were looking for. We got there without violating any red lines,” meaning Biden did not have to accept gas-tax increases and Republicans did not have to touch the 2017 tax cuts.
The agreement also bolsters Biden’s case that he can shift back and forth between bipartisan deals and Democrats-only reconciliation measures. “I do think that this experience of significant work raises likelihood of other bipartisan deals,” Ricchetti said. “We have always said that even when we disagree we will do so respectfully and then come back again. We’re not going to give up.”
The second major takeaway is that Biden has another chance to over-perform, beating low expectations set by the media and nervous progressives. If the bill turns out to be as popular as polling has indicated, he will enjoy the boost as well as the results in an improved economy. Democrats in 2022 are going to run on “building back better.”
Third, for all his obstruction and dedication to preventing a successful Biden presidency, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) really does not run the place. Provided that Biden can lure at least 10 Republicans to support the bipartisan bill and that Sinema and Manchin can remain flexible on when to work around the filibuster, McConnell’s influence is muted. The lowest common denominator becomes what Manchin and more sensible Republicans will accept, not what McConnell will agree to (i.e., practically nothing).
Fourth, we see yet again (as was the case for the American Rescue Plan and on party solidarity on the For the People Act) that at the very end, Manchin usually comes on board. That is attributable to his relationship with Biden, his centrist views and Republicans’ knack of making themselves so disagreeable that Manchin cannot in good faith side with them.
Finally, none of this is going to come to fruition until there are 60 votes in the Senate on a bipartisan bill and 50 votes (plus the vice president) on a reconciliation bill. Any expectation that this will get done quickly is misplaced. Even getting to this point was a struggle; reaching a deal on all the details will take as much, if not more, patience and skill.
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Opinion | Five big things to come out of a bipartisan infrastructure deal - The Washington Post
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