Things were going so well early during the action on Monday. After going 6-3 in actual picks in the first round of the 2020 playoffs here in Best Bets -- also hitting on one of the three bonus longshot picks -- Sean Murphy went deep, hitting another bonus pick for me. Then the A's lost their lead and the Yankees crushed the Rays. Sometimes you miss and that's why I'm OK with the A's pick, but I'm kicking myself over picking against the Yankees. Time to have a bounce-back day. Let's do it.
| SERIES/GAME | AWAY | HOME | TIME (ET) | TV | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NLDS Game 1 |
Miami |
Atlanta (-1.5) |
2 p.m. |
FS1 |
8.0 |
|
ALDS Game 2 |
Houston |
Oakland (-1.5) |
4:30 p.m. |
TBS |
9.0 |
|
ALDS Game 2 |
N.Y. Yankees |
Tampa Bay (-1.5) |
8 p.m. |
TBS |
8.5 |
|
NLDS Game 1 |
San Diego |
L.A. Dodgers (-1.5) |
9:30 p.m. |
FS1 |
8.5 |
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Astros vs. A's, over 9.0 runs
How much was the ball flying in Dodger Stadium on Monday? Watch George Springer tracking the Murphy homer:
This wasn't the only ball where it seemed the pitching and defense were befuddled as to how far it traveled. Alex Bregman even hit a home run that Baseball Savant pegged with an expected batting average (it uses exit velocity and launch angle to figure the percentage of times a ball with the same profile is a hit) of .260.
You can see where this is headed. Dodger Stadium was one of the best home run parks in the majors this season and in particular a power-hitter haven for right-handed hitters these days. The ball will especially fly during the day (the game starts at 1:37 p.m. Pacific time) and when it's hot (we're looking at mid-80s temperatures throughout the day).
With a pair of lefties starting against two lineups with plenty of right-handed power, I'm expecting the over to hit again. I wish I'd gone this way in Game 1. Alas, all I can do is learn and move forward. The over it is. We aren't gonna stop here, either.
Yankees vs. Rays, over 8.5 runs
Small sample, sure, but the Yankees have now hit all three overs this postseason. In fact, they've done so on their own, scoring 12, 10 and nine runs, respectively, in games started by Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco and Blake Snell while also having to deal with quality bullpens. Just watching the at-bats they are putting together, it's a clinic. They are taking nasty breaking stuff that is just missing home plate and not missing mistakes while also crushing well-executed pitches. This offense is an utter wrecking crew.
The Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the bump and he's incredibly talented. He's at least part of the reason the Rays are favored to win the game. Also, the Rays were the best team in the American League and only lost back-to-back games once (a three-game losing streak) after Aug. 2. They are awfully tough to bet against here, but I'm not even thinking about picking against the Yankees again. This is why I'm not comfortable picking a team and instead just going with the over.
Plus, Glasnow can be hit. These Yankees got him for four runs on five hits in 2 2/3 innings on Aug. 8. Three times in 11 starts he allowed at least four earned runs.
The Yankees are starting youngster Deivi Garcia and his excellent K:BB rate of 33:6 in 34 1/3 innings. He's also been knocked around a few times and it's unlikely manager Aaron Boone wants to empty the bullpen here with no days off. It's possible Boone has a short leash with Garcia and piggybacks him with a fellow starter, but the options there are lefties J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery and the Rays slug 32 points higher against Southpaws.
I love the offense we're about to see in the AL.
Sorry, Marlins, I'm just not seeing it. The series win over the Cubs after the surprisingly fun regular season had to be outstanding for the fans of South Florida, but I'm off the belief that's going to the be the high point of the season (which is fine, given where expectations started!). Excellent pitching happened in the Wild Card Series, but that came against a wholly overrated Cubs offense (I cashed both unders easily) that finished in the bottom third of the NL in all three rate stats and runs scored. The Braves led the league in on-base percentage, slugging, OPS (obviously) and were second in average, runs and home runs. The Crawford Boxes are gonna get a workout this series. Speaking of which ...
Bonus: Adam Duvall homers in Braves win (+450)
I wanted to go back to the Marcell Ozuna well, but he's only +250 here and we'll require more of a longshot. In Duvall's last 26 regular season games, he slugged .631 with five doubles and 12 homers in 103 at-bats. He also homered in Game 2 of the wild card round. He pulls nearly all of his home runs and those aforementioned Crawford Boxes sit awfully close in left field. I like him to do some work there Tuesday.
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October 06, 2020 at 11:13PM
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MLB playoffs betting odds, picks: Expect Braves' bats to come alive against Marlins in NLDS Game 1 - CBS Sports
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